Annual Meeting of Stockholders
December 18, 2008
JOHN MADDEN
TONY STEWART
MARTHA STEWART
HOWARD STERN
BOB DYLAN
FRANK SINATRA
BRUCE SPRINGSTEEN
JAMIE FOXX
CAL RIPKEN
OPRAH WINFREY
Agenda
I. Operations
II. Liquidity
III. Stock Price
IV. Questions and Answers
1
I. Operations
Operational Overview
2
Quote of the Week
The historic slowdown in the economy
and its effect on our business over the
past 90 days have been the most
challenging consumer environment our
company has ever faced.
- Best Buy CEO Brad Anderson
3
SIRIUS XM: navigating a challenging business environment
Deep recession now underway
Financial markets remain disrupted
Unemployment at 6.7% - highest since 1993 - and
expected to increase as layoffs accelerate
Consumer confidence at all time lows
Weakest car sales in 26 years - November down
37%
Retail / Consumer Electronics market struggles
4
2008
2008
5
Scale creates greater operating leverage
Source: Company filings
Ranks among largest U.S. subscription media
businesses
Total subscribers as of 3Q08 (millions)
6
3.3
5.5
13.2
13.8
17.3
18.9
24.4
Cablevision
Charter
Time Warner
Cable
Dish Network
DirecTV
SIRIUS XM
Comcast
Source: Company filings
Ending SIRIUS XM subs (millions)
Strong subscriber growth, 2003 - 2008E
7
1.6
4.4
9.3
13.7
17.4
19.1
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008E
Ending subscribers by channel (millions)
13.7
17.3
19.1
Source: Company filings
8
2006
2007
2008E
OEM Ending Subs (millions)
Aftermarket Ending Subs (millions)
5.2
8.5
9.2
9.0
8.1
10.1
OEM industry sales and gross add trends
Source: Company filings and estimates
9
16.6
3.6
16.2
5.3
13.2
5.8
2006
2007
2008E
OEM Industry Sales (millions)
SIRIUS XM OEM Gross Adds (millions)
Stable self-pay churn rates
Source: Company filings and estimates
10
1.70%
1.77%
1.73%
2006
2007
2008E
Substantial revenue growth
Revenue Guidance: Approximately $2.4 b in 2008
Source: Company filings and estimates
11
$0.3
$0.8
$1.6
$2.1
$2.4
$0.1
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008E
2003
Lower headcount driven by merger
efficiencies
Total company headcount will be 22% lower by year-end 2008
Source: Company estimates.
12
2,058
1,600
Ending 2008
Pre-Merger
Growth statistics
In millions except per unit metrics
Actual
2006
Actual
2007
Estimate
2008
Ending Subscribers Growth Rate
48%
27%
10%
Revenue Growth Rate
96%
31%
17%
Total Cash Operating Expense Growth Rate
44%
16%
0%
Source: Company filings and estimates
13
Improved 2008 adjusted EBITDA guidance
Source: Company filings and estimates
14
New adjusted EBITDA guidance of ($200) mm in 2008,
revised from ($300) mm
3Q08 adjusted EBITDA ex. merger costs close to
break-even before substantial synergy benefits
Guidance implies 4Q08 adjusted EBITDA of ($32) mm versus pro forma 4Q07 of ($224) mm, an 86% improvement
November channel rationalization - reduced
costs and improved user experience
Line-ups largely combined - best audio experience being made
available to both SIRIUS and XM listeners at no extra cost, and with no
new hardware required
Total cost savings of over $35 million annually (<10k consumer
cancellations)
Music
Before - total production of 130 music channels;
After - total of 67 channels
SIRIUS and XM both feature 69 commercial-free music channels, 63
of which are shared
Talk & Sports
Before - total production of 164 talk/sports channels;
After - total of 147 channels
SIRIUS now has 75 talk/sports channels; XM now has 134 (part time
channels are included in XM totals); 38 shared channels
Note: Figures exclude Clear Channel produced channels and Canadian channels.
15
2009
2009
16
Faster growth than other subscription media
Source: Company, Merrill Lynch or Consensus Estimates
Among the fastest growing U.S. media
businesses
2009E Revenue Growth
17
3%
6%
6%
8%
9%
13%
-9%
Radio
Industry
Dish
Network
Comcast
Time
Warner
Cable
Cablevision
DirecTV
SIRIUS XM
Combined OEM penetration as a percentage of U.S. auto sales
Source: Global Insight estimate as of June 2008 and company filings. Actual 2008 and 2009 numbers may differ materially.
Penetration gains at every major automaker
Penetration gains expected to continue to drive net subscriber additions
18
15%
22%
33%
45%
50%+
2005
2006
2007
2008E
2009E
Continued subscriber growth despite weak
OEM sales
Subscriber Guidance: Approximately 19.1 mm in 2008 and 20.6 mm in 2009
Source: Company filings and estimates.
19
9.3
13.7
17.4
19.1
20.6
2005
2006
2007
2008E
2009E
Drives revenue growth in 2008 and 2009
Revenue Guidance: Approximately $2.4 b in 2008 and $2.7 b in 2009
Source: Company filings and estimates.
20
$0.8
$1.6
$2.1
$2.4
$2.7
2005
2006
2007
2008E
2009E
21
Synergies: approx. $425 mm in 2009 and
growing
Expected approximate 2009 synergies:
Satellite & Transmission: $20 mm
Programming: $60 mm
Customer Service & Billing: $20 mm
SAC: $50 mm
Sales & Marketing: $150 mm
General & Administrative: $50 mm
Research & Development: $25 mm
Revenue Synergies: $40 mm
Capital Expenditures: $10 mm
Synergies expected to grow in 2010 and beyond
Price plans to drive subscriber revenue
growth
Best of SIRIUS/XM upgrade launched October 2
$4 premium upgrade to be marketed to over 18 million existing
subscribers
Best of SIRIUS on XM includes:
Howard 100, Howard 101, SIRIUS NFL Radio*, SIRIUS
NASCAR Radio*, Martha Stewart Living Radio and
Playboy Radio
Best of XM on SIRIUS includes:
MLB HomePlate, Oprah& Friends, NBA*, The Virus, NHL
Home Ice*, The PGA Tour Network, College Sports,
Public Radio featuring Bob Edwards and The IndyCar
Series
A La Carte radios in stores; new packages launched on October 2
Lower price options to retain more price sensitive subscribers
* Sports offerings on Best of Both also includes channels for play-by-play of NHL, NBA, NFL games and NASCAR races.
22
Substantial EBITDA improvement in 2009
23
Adjusted EBITDA turns positive in 2009
Approximately ($200) mm in 2008
Approximately $300 mm in 2009
Driven by revenue growth and cost cuts / synergies, offset
by royalty and revenue share increases
Source: Company filings and estimates.
Current long range guidance
Subs (millions), $s in
billions
Guidance
2009
Guidance
2010
Guidance
2011
Guidance
2012
Guidance
2013
Ending Subscribers
20.6
22.1
24.0
26.2
28.4
Total Revenue
$2.7
$3.0
$3.4
$3.8
$4.1
Adjusted EBITDA
$0.3
$0.6
$0.9
$1.3
$1.5
Free Cash Flow
$0.0
$0.4
$0.6
$1.0
$1.4
Source: Company filings and estimates. See slide at back for GAAP reconciliations.
24
II. Liquidity
Liquidity Overview
25
Debt Maturities: 2009 - 2013
$995
Source: Company filings
26
$783
$212
$0
$230
$248
$500
$1,334
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
SIRIUS ($ millions)
XM ($ millions)
2009 Debt Maturities
Debt Instrument
Due Date
Amount
(millions)
SIRIUS
2.5% Convertible Notes
Feb-09
$209
8.75% Convertible Notes
Sep-09
$2
XM
Revolving Credit Facility
May-09
$250
UBS Term Loan
May-09
$100
10% Convertible Notes
Dec-09
$400
10% Secured Conv. Notes
Dec-09
$33
Total debt maturing in 2009
$995
Source: Company filings
27
High yield debt market overview
Sep. 15 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers brought markets
to a virtual standstill - no new CCC paper since then
Rates are at all time high spreads to Treasuries
Source: Morgan Stanley
28
Feb-07
Jul-08
Dec-08
Leveraged
Loan Index (Yield)
7.76%
9.40%
24.29%
CCC Rated
Pricing
Yield
Current
High Yield Issuances
Date
Amount (mm)
at Issue
Yield
XM Satellite Radio
7/24/2008
$779
16%
52%
Guitar Center
8/6/2008
$777
13%
NA
Clear Channel
9/11/2008
$228
18%
48%
CBOE Volatility Index: up five fold from
February 2007 - present
2/16/07: $10.02
12/16/08: $52.37
29
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
JPMorgan and Evercore working on overall financing plan
3 areas of activity:
Operational improvements
Existing debt holder discussions
New investor discussions
Looking to complete all by March 1
Capital structure initiatives
30
III. Stock Price
Stock Price and Market
Performance
31
Renewals of programming agreements at lower rates
Channel rationalization improves audio experience
and lowers programming cost
Early success up-selling customers to new Best of
packages
Distribution contract improvements in OEM and
Retail
Volume benefits from chipset manufacturers,
transaction fees, etc.
Benefits of the merger are significant
32
Best practices implementation at call centers and in
retention programs should over time improve churn
and conversion rates
Employee head count down significantly
Significant reduction in marketing spending
Rationalization of price points for aftermarket products
Benefits of the merger are significant
33
Enterprise value / revenue comparison
Source: Company filings, Capital IQ, or Yahoo
34
1.43
1.45
1.46
1.98
0.84
Dish Network
DirecTV
TWX
SIRIUS XM
Apple
Financial performance disconnected from
valuation
SIRIUS 2003
SIRIUS 2005
SIRIUS XM 2008E
Subs: 261K
Revenue: $12.9 M
=
Debt + Equity:
$3.4B
Subs: 3.3 M
Revenue: $242 M
=
Debt + Equity:
$10.0B
Subs: 19.1 M
Revenue: $2.4 B
=
Debt + Equity:
$3.5B
Source: Company filings, Capital IQ, or Yahoo
35
Management priorities
Resolving 2009 liquidity
Maximizing synergies, EBITDA, and FCF
Maintaining growth
Enhancing shareholder value
36
IV. Q & A
Questions and Answers
37
In order to provide projections with respect to non-GAAP measures, we are required to estimate GAAP
measures that are components of these reconciliations. The provision of these estimates is in no way meant
to indicate that the company is explicitly or implicitly providing projections on those GAAP components of the
reconciliations. In order to reconcile the non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP, the company has estimated
the GAAP components
that arithmetically add up to the non-GAAP financial measures. The company fully
expects that the estimates used for the GAAP components will vary from actual results.
Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
Income / (Loss) From Operations
($0.1)
$0.3
$0.5
$0.9
$1.1
Add: Equity Expense
$0.1
$0.1
$0.1
$0.1
$0.1
Add: Depreciation & Amortization
$0.2
$0.2
$0.3
$0.3
$0.3
Adjusted EBITDA
$0.3
$0.6
$0.9
$1.3
$1.5
Free Cash Flow Reconciliation
Net Change in Cash & Cash
Equivalents
$0.0
$0.3
$0.4
$0.8
$0.9
Add: Cash Flow from Financing
($0.0)
$0.0
$0.2
$0.2
$0.5
Add: Other Investing
($0.0)
$0.0
($0.0)
$0.0
$0.0
Free Cash Flow
$0.0
$0.4
$0.6
$1.0
$1.4
A reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow contained in the companys projections to their most
comparable financial measure calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP is set forth below:
38
GAAP reconciliation
Disclaimer on forward-looking statements
The guidance contained herein are based upon a number of assumptions and estimates that, while considered reasonable by us when taken as a whole, are
inherently subject to significant business, economic
and competitive uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond our control. In addition, the
guidance is based upon specific assumptions with respect to future business conditions, some or all of which will change. The guidance, like
any forecast, is
necessarily speculative in nature and it can be expected that the assumptions upon which the guidance is based will not prove to be valid or will vary from actual
results. Actual results will vary from the guidance and the variations
may be material. Consequently, the guidance should not be regarded as a representation by us
or any other person that the subscribers, synergies, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA will actually be achieved. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance
on this
information.
This communication contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Such statements include, but
are not limited to, statements about the benefits of the business combination transaction involving SIRIUS and XM, including potential synergies and cost savings
and the timing thereof, future financial and operating results,
the combined companys plans, objectives, expectations and intentions with respect to future
operations, products and services; and other statements identified by words such as anticipate, believe, plan, estimate,
expect, intend, will, should,
may, or words of similar meaning. Such forward-looking statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of SIRIUS and XMs management
and
are inherently subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond
the control of SIRIUS and XM. Actual results may differ materially from the
results anticipated in these forward-looking statements.
The following factors, among others, could cause actual results to differ materially from the anticipated results or other expectations expressed in the forward-looking
statement: general business and economic
conditions; the performance of financial markets and interest rates; the ability to obtain governmental approvals of the
transaction on a timely basis; the failure to realize synergies and cost-savings from the transaction or delay in realization thereof;
the businesses of SIRIUS and XM
may not be combined successfully, or such combination may take longer, be more difficult, time-consuming or costly to accomplish than expected; and operating
costs and business disruption following the merger, including
adverse effects on employee retention and on our business relationships with third parties, including
manufacturers of radios, retailers, automakers and programming providers. Additional factors that could cause SIRIUS and XMs results
to differ materially from
those described in the forward-looking statements can be found in SIRIUS and XMs Annual Reports on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007 and their
respective Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q for the quarter
ended September 30, 2008, which are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC")
and available at the SECs Internet site (
http://www.sec.gov). The information set forth herein speaks only as of the date hereof, and SIRIUS and XM disclaim any
intention or obligation to update any forward looking statements
as a result of developments occurring after the date of this communication.
39
JOHN MADDEN
TONY STEWART
MARTHA STEWART
HOWARD STERN
BOB DYLAN
FRANK SINATRA
BRUCE SPRINGSTEEN
JAMIE FOXX
CAL RIPKEN
OPRAH WINFREY